News Express: UM releases Macroeconomic Forecast for Macao 2023
新聞快訊：澳大發表最新2023年宏觀經濟預測
澳大發表最新2023年宏觀經濟預測
UM has released the Macroeconomic Forecast for Macao 2023
澳大發表最新2023年宏觀經濟預測
澳門大學澳門研究中心及經濟學系發表2023年最新宏觀經濟預測，預計2023年的經濟增長處於20.5%至44.1%之間；服務出口增長為35.2%至82.8%之間；澳門特區政府最終收入維持在554億元至661億元左右，澳門的經濟復蘇（特別是下半年）會較爲明顯。
課題組在3個不同的情景預設作出以下預測：本地生產總值的基線預測分別增長20.5%至2,118億元（2019年的47.7%）（情景一），36.5%至2,400億元（2019年的54.0%）（情景二）和44.1%至2,533億元（2019年的67.0%）（情景三），（實質增長率、絕對值以環比物量（2020年）計算）；服務出口增長的基線預測分別急升35.2%（情景一），64.9%（情景二）和82.8%（情景三）；預計2023年度澳門特區政府經常收入分別是554億元（情景一），628億元（情景二）和661億元（情景三）。
受疫情和防疫政策影響，2022年澳門經濟持續萎縮。第1季本地生產總值按年下降10.5%；6月中下旬更發生比較大規模的社區感染個案，第2季本地生產總值更按年急跌39.0%，回復至2020年第2季的水平。在6月中至7月實施的封控措施影響下，第3季本地生產總值按年下跌33.4%。
澳門在2022年12月改變防疫政策。因此，預計2023年旅客數目會有所上升，然而澳門社會的適應能力和外地人士到澳門的意願存在不同的差異。因應這些差異，課題組作出三個不同的情景預設。首先情景一為比較審慎的預設：旅客數目第1季為207萬人次（2019年的20%），第2季為248萬人次（2019年的25%），第3季為298萬人次（2019年的30%），而第4季為322萬人次（2019年的35%）。情景二則是一個較樂觀的預設：旅客數目第1季為311萬人次（2019年的30%），第2季為397萬人次（2019年的40%），第3季為496萬人次（2019年的50%），而第4季為552萬人次（2019年的60%）。情景三的預設比情景二更樂觀，考慮2023下半年的旅客數目會有更快增長：旅客數目預設第1和第2季跟情景二相同，第3季則為694萬人次（2019年的70%），而第4季為736萬人次（2019年的80%）。以上預設均假定疫情沒有重大變化而導致政策需要急速調整。
基於上述三個情景，主要經濟變數預測如下﹕
- 本地生產總值的基線預測分別增長5%至2,118億元（2019年的47.7%，情景一），36.5%至2,400億元（2019年的54.0%，情景二）和44.1%至2,533億元（2019年的67.0%，情景三）。
- 服務出口增長的基線預測分別急升2%（情景一），64.9%（情景二）和82.8%（情景三）。
- 私人消費增長的基線預測為3%至6.5%。
- 固定資產形成的基線預測分別上升4%（情景一），4.6%（情景二）和5.0%（情景三）。
- 物價變動（本地生產總值平減指數）的基線預測為上漲6%至1.7%；消費物價指數升幅則介乎1.7%至2.0%。
- 每月工作收入的基線預測分別上調1%（情景一），2.0%（情景二）和2.1%（情景三）。
- 失業率的基線預測分別是0%（情景一），3.8%（情景二）和3.7%（情景三），而本地居民失業率則分別是4.9%（情景一），4.7%（情景二）和4.5%（情景三）。
- 預計2023年度澳門特區政府經常收入分別是554億元（情景一），628億元（情景二）和661億元（情景三）。
經過近三年的防疫封控措施，澳門終於走上重新開放之路，惟復蘇之道仍面對不少挑戰，勞動力市場有可能短期受疫情滯後因素影響而窒礙與旅遊相關行業的增長。綜合而言，由於2022年低基數效應，預計今年澳門的經濟復蘇（特別是下半年）會較爲明顯。
《澳門宏觀經濟模型》簡介
《澳門宏觀經濟模型》是一個大型季度聯立方程計量模型，目前包含澳門經濟中七個主要部分——消費、投資、對外貿易、價格、政府部門、就業市場以及金融系統，共有296個變數和89條方程式，所用數據由1998年第1季開始，模型估算會隨著數據發表而定時更新，提供及時和有用的澳門經濟分析，協助決策者對未來作出合理的規劃。此模型由澳門大學榮譽博士、諾貝爾經濟學獎得主前詹姆士‧莫里斯教授和經濟學系老師開發與管理，課題組成員包括陳志誠、何偉雄和關鋒，項目現由澳門大學澳門研究中心管理。
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https://www.um.edu.mo/zh-hant/news-and-press-releases/campus-news/detail/55075/
UM releases Macroeconomic Forecast for Macao 2023
The University of Macau (UM) Centre for Macau Studies (CMS) and Department of Economics have released the Macroeconomic Forecast for Macao 2023, estimating that the economy will grow between 20.5% and 44.1%; exports of services will grow between 35.2% and 82.8%; and the final revenue of the Macao SAR government will remain at around MOP 55.4 billion to MOP 66.1 billion, in 2023. Macao’s economic recovery is also expected to be more obvious, especially in the second half of the year.
Based on three different scenarios, the research team has obtained the following forecasts: the baseline forecast of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growths are 20.5%, to MOP 211.8 billion (47.7% of 2019’s level), in Scenario 1; 36.5%, to MOP 240 billion (54.0% of 2019’s level), in Scenario 2; and 44.1%, to MOP 253.3 billion (67.0% of 2019’s level), in Scenario 3, respectively (real growth rate, all absolute levels calculated in chained (2020) dollars). The baseline forecast of growths in the exports of services are 35.2% in Scenario 1, 64.9% in Scenario 2, and 82.8% in Scenario 3, respectively. The Macao SAR government’s current revenue in 2023 is expected to be MOP 55.4 billion in Scenario 1, MOP 62.8 billion in Scenario 2, and MOP 66.1 billion in Scenario 3, respectively.
In 2022, the economy of Macao continued to shrink as a result of the impact of the pandemic and epidemic prevention policies. In the first quarter, the year-on-year GDP fell by 10.5%. Following the relatively large-scale emergence of infection cases in the local community in mid to late June, the year-on-year GDP collapsed by 39.0% in the second quarter, returning to the level of the second quarter of 2020. From mid-June to July 2022, subject to the influence of the implementation of lockdown measures, the year-on-year GDP decreased by 33.4% in the third quarter.
As Macao has adjusted its epidemic prevention policies in December 2022, visitor arrivals are expected to increase in 2023. However, there are differences in the adaptability of the Macao society and the willingness of foreigners to visit Macao. In response to these differences, the research team has made three different scenario assumptions. Scenario 1 has more cautious assumptions: visitor arrivals are assumed to be 2.07 million in the first quarter (20% of 2019’s level), 2.48 million in the second quarter (25% of 2019’s level), 2.98 million in the third quarter (30% of 2019), and 3.22 million in the fourth quarter (35% of 2019’s level). Scenario 2 has more optimistic assumptions: visitor arrivals are assumed to be 3.11 million in the first quarter (30% of 2019’s level), 3.97 million in the second quarter (40% of 2019’s level), 4.96 million in the third quarter (50% of 2019’s level), and 5.52 million in the fourth quarter (60% of 2019’s level). Scenario 3 is even more optimistic when compared to Scenario 2, considering that visitor arrivals in the second half of 2023 will grow faster: visitor arrivals in the first and second quarters are assumed to be the same as in Scenario 2, while visitor arrivals in the third quarter and the fourth quarter are assumed to be 6.94 million (70% of 2019’s level), and 7.36 million (80% of 2019’s level), respectively. The above scenarios all assume that there will be no major changes in the epidemic situation that will lead to rapid policy adjustment.
Based on the above three scenarios, the forecasts of major economic variables are as follows:
- The baseline forecast of GDP growths are 5%, to MOP 211.8 billion (47.7% of 2019’s level), in Scenario 1; 36.5%, to MOP 240 billion (54.0% of 2019’s level), in Scenario 2; and 44.1%, to MOP 253.3 billion (67.0% of 2019’s level), in Scenario 3, respectively.
- The baseline forecast of growths in the exports of services are 35.2% in Scenario 1, 64.9% in Scenario 2, and 82.8% in Scenario 3, respectively.
- The baseline forecast of growths in private consumption expenditure are 6.3% to 6.5%.
- The baseline forecast of growths in total gross fixed capital formation are 2.4% in Scenario 1, 4.6% in Scenario 2, and 5.0% in Scenario 3, respectively.
- The inflation rate measured by GDP deflator is expected to rise by 1.6% to 1.7%, and consumer price is expected to increase by 1.7% to 2.0%.
- Median monthly employment earnings are expected to increase by 1.1% in Scenario 1, 2.0% in Scenario 2, and 2.1% in Scenario 3, respectively.
- Unemployment rate is projected to be 4.0% in Scenario 1, 3.8% in Scenario 2, and 3.7% in Scenario 3, respectively. The unemployment rate for local residents is expected to be 4.9% in Scenario 1, 4.7% in Scenario 2, and 4.5% in Scenario 3, respectively.
- The Macao SAR government’s current revenue in 2023 is expected to be MOP 55.4 billion in Scenario 1, MOP 62.8 billion in Scenario 2, and MOP 66.1 billion in Scenario 3, respectively.
Macao has finally reopened after nearly three years of implementation of epidemic prevention and control measures. However, there will still be many challenges on the road to economic recovery. The labour market is likely to be affected by lag effects of the pandemic in the short term and they will hinder the growth of tourism-related industries. In general, due to the low base effect in 2022, it is expected that Macao’s economic recovery (especially in the second half of the year) will be more obvious this year.
About the Macroeconometric Structural Model of Macao
The Macroeconometric Structural Model of Macao is a quarterly simultaneous-equations econometric model which covers seven aspects of Macao’s economy: consumption, investment, the external sector, prices, government, the labour market, and the monetary sector. It includes 89 equations and 296 variables. Time series data start from the first quarter of 1998 and is updated once new data are available. Its results provide the community with a timely understanding of the state of Macao’s economy and support prudent decision-making. The model was founded by late Prof Sir James Mirrlees, winner of the Nobel Prize in economic sciences and honorary doctor of social sciences of UM, as well as faculty members in the Department of Economics of UM. Members of the research team include Dr Chan Chi Shing, adjunct lecturer in the CMS; Prof Ho Wai Hong, associate professor in the Department of Economics; and Prof Kwan Fung, assistant professor in the Department of Economics.
To read the news on UM’s official website, please visit the following link:
https://www.um.edu.mo/news-and-press-releases/campus-news/detail/55075/