【CMS】CMS releases macroeconomic forecast for Macao 2026
【澳門研究中心】 澳門研究中心發表 2026 年宏觀經濟預測
澳門大學澳門研究中心及經濟學系發表 2026 年宏觀經濟預測。課題組預測 2026 年澳門本地生產總值的基線實質增速為 6.3%，其他主要經濟變量的基線預測為：服務出口增⾧ 6.3%、私人消費支出增⾧ 0.8%、通脹率 0.8%、整體失業率 1.8%、澳門居民失業率 2.3%、澳門特區政府名義經常收入1,237 億元。
外部需求方面，旅客人數在 2025 年有可觀的增⾧，整體為 4,007 萬人次，按年升 14.7%，超過新冠疫情前 2019 年的水平，為有紀錄以來最多。當中中國內地旅客人數達到 2,902 萬人次，按年升18.5%；香港旅客則為 730 萬人次，按年增⾧ 1.7%；而其他地區旅客人數為 375 萬人次，按年升15.2%。不過夜旅客為主要增⾧來源，全年升 25.6%，而留宿旅客微升 3.1%。
隨着旅客人數的急速增⾧，服務出口亦有不俗的增⾧。2025 年第三、四季的服務出口分別按年實質增⾧ 10.5%和 9.8%。與服務出口相關之博彩業中的幸運博彩毛收入 2025 年為 2,474 億元，增⾧9.1%，當中貴賓百家樂為 680 億元，佔 27.5%；而 2026 年 1 月幸運博彩毛收入為 226 億元，更按年升 24.0%。
內部需求則較為疲弱。2025 年第㇐季、第二季、第三季及第四季的私人消費按年實質增⾧分別只有1.2%、1.7%、0.8%及 1.1%；固定資本形成總額第㇐季按年實質增⾧ 3.9%，第二季出現收縮，按年實質減少 4.6%，第三季更按年實質跌 26.1%，第四季按年實質回升 0.9%。
整體而言，澳門 2025 年本地生產總值第三季為 1,039 億元，按年實質增⾧ 8.0%；而第四季為 1,154億元，按年實質增⾧ 7.6%。全年計算，本地生產總值為 4,173 億澳門元，按年實質增⾧ 4.7%。
物價變動不大。2025 年的消費物價通脹率僅為 0.3%，當中佔比較重的食物及非酒精飲品和住屋及燃料之通脹率分別為 0.6%和 0.3%。
勞動市場維持平穩。2025 年第㇐季及第二季整體失業率均為 1.9%，而第三季及第四季更降至 1.8%，首兩季之澳門居民失業率均為 2.5%，而第三季降至 2.4%，第四季更降至 2.3%，2025 年第三季整體每月工作收入中位數為 17,000 元，低於 2024 年同期的 18,000 元，第四季回升至 17,300 元；而澳門居民每月工作收入中位數第三季及第四季均為 20,000 元，亦略低於 2024 年第三季及第四季的20,500 元。
國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）在 2026 年 1 月報告中，預計 2026 年全球經濟成⾧率為 3.3%、2027 年為 3.2%。技術投資、各國的財政和貨幣支持、寬鬆的金融環境以及私人部門的適應能力抵消了貿易政策變化的影響。而中國内地則因結構調整所帶來的負面效果和持續的弱預期，社會消費品總額增⾧持續放緩，固定資產投資收縮，惟出口仍然較快增⾧，料龐大順差造成貿易磨擦，出口增⾧可能放緩，而中央政府在財政政策與金融政策將會再加大力度，試圖增加民間消費與投資。
在這樣情境下，課題組預測 2026 年主要經濟變量表現如下：
- 本地生產總值實質增⾧的基線預測：6.3%。
- 服務出口實質增⾧的基線預測：6.3%；對本地生產總值增⾧率的貢獻：5.15%#。
- 私人消費支出實質增⾧的基線預測：0.8%；對本地生產總值增⾧率的貢獻：0.23%#。
- 固定資產形成實質增⾧的基線預測：1.2%：對本地生產總值增⾧率的貢獻：0.16%#。
- 本地生產總值平減指數的基線預測：0.4%。
- 消費物價指數升幅：0.8%。
- 每月工作收入中位數的基線預測：0.9%。
- 失業率的基線預測：1.8%。
- 澳門居民失業率的基線預測：2.3%。
- 澳門特區政府的名義經常收入的基線預測：1,237 億元。
# 基於這三個支出項目只是本地生產總值的部分，其貢獻的和並不等於本地生產總值實質增⾧率
《澳門宏觀經濟模型》簡介
《澳門宏觀經濟模型》是㇐個大型季度聯立方程計量模型，目前包含澳門經濟中七個主要部分——消費、投資、對外貿易、價格、政府部門、就業市場以及金融系統，共有 306 個變數和 87 條方程式，所用數據由 1998 年第 1 季開始，模型估算會隨著數據發表而定時更新，提供及時和有用的澳門經濟分析，協助決策者對未來作出合理的規劃。此模型由澳大榮譽博士、諾貝爾經濟學獎得主前詹姆士‧莫里斯教授和經濟學系老師開發與管理。課題組召集人為關鋒，成員包括陳志誠、何偉雄和黃嘉基。項目現由澳大澳門研究中心管理。
The Centre for Macau Studies (CMS) and the Department of Economics of the University of Macau (UM) have released the macroeconomic forecast for Macao 2026. The research team projects that Macao’s baseline real GDP growth will reach 6.3% in 2026, while the baseline forecasts for other key economic variables are as follows: exports of services up by 6.3%, private consumption expenditure up by 0.8%, inflation rate at 0.8%, overall unemployment rate at 1.8%, unemployment rate of Macao residents at 2.3%; and the Macao SAR government’s current revenue at MOP 123.7 billion.
In terms of external demand, visitor arrivals recorded a notable increase in 2025, reaching 40.07 million, a year-on-year increase of 14.7%, surpassing the pre-COVID-19 level of 2019 and setting a record high. Among them, visitor arrivals from the Chinese mainland reached 29.02 million, a year-on-year increase of 18.5%; visitor arrivals from Hong Kong totalled 7.3 million, a year-on-year increase of 1.7%; while visitor arrivals from other regions reached 3.75 million, a year-on-year increase of 15.2%. Notably, same-day visitors were the main source of growth, increasing by 25.6% for the year, while overnight visitors saw a slight increase of 3.1%. With the rapid growth in visitor arrivals, exports of services also saw considerable growth. Exports of services in the third and fourth quarters of 2025 grew by 10.5% and 9.8% year-onyear in real terms, respectively. In the gaming sector, which is linked to exports of services, gross revenue from games of chance reached MOP 247.4 billion in 2025, representing a yearon-year increase of 9.1%, with VIP baccarat accounting for MOP 68 billion, or 27.5% of the total. In January 2026, gross revenue from games of chance reached MOP 22.6 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 24.0%.
Domestic demand, however, remains relatively weak. Private consumption grew by only 1.2%, 1.7%, 0.8%, and 1.1% year-on-year in real terms in the first, second, third, and fourth quarters of 2025, respectively. Gross fixed capital formation grew by 3.9% year-on-year in real terms in the first quarter, contract by 4.6% year-on-year in real terms in the second quarter, and further decline by 26.1% year-on-year in real terms in the third quarter, before rebounding by 0.9% year-on-year in real terms in the fourth quarter.
Overall, Macao’s GDP reached MOP 103.9 billion in the third quarter of 2025, representing a real year-on-year growth of 8.0%, and MOP 115.4 billion in the fourth quarter, representing a real year-on-year growth of 7.6%. For 2025 as a whole, GDP stood at MOP 417.3 billion, marking a real year-on-year growth of 4.7%.
Price fluctuations were insignificant. The consumer price inflation rate in 2025 was only 0.3%, with food and non-alcoholic beverages, and housing and fuel—which carry significant weight in the index—recording inflation rates of 0.6% and 0.3%, respectively.
The labour market remained stable. In 2025, the overall unemployment rate was 1.9% in both the first and second quarters, before easing to 1.8% in the third and fourth quarters. The unemployment rate of Macao residents was 2.5% in the first two quarters, falling to 2.4% in the third quarter and to 2.3% in the fourth quarter. Overall median monthly employment earnings were MOP 17,000 in the third quarter of 2025, which was lower than the MOP 18,000 recorded in the same period of 2024. However, this figure rebounded to MOP 17,300 in the fourth quarter. The median monthly employment earnings of local residents were MOP 20,000 in both the third and fourth quarters, which was slightly lower than the MOP 20,500 recorded in the third and fourth quarters of 2024.
In its January 2026 report, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected global economic growth of 3.3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027. Technology investment, fiscal and monetary support across different countries, accommodative financial conditions, and private sector adaptability offset trade policy shifts. In the Chinese mainland, the negative effects of structural adjustments and persistently weak expectations have led to a continued slowdown in the growth of total consumer spending and a contraction in fixed asset investment. Nevertheless, exports have gained momentum, and the large trade surplus may lead to trade friction and potentially slow export growth. Meanwhile, the central government is expected to further strengthen fiscal and monetary policies to boost private consumption and investment.
Under these circumstances, the baseline forecasts for the major economic variables for 2026 are as follows:
- Real GDP growth: 6.3%
- Growth in exports of services: 6.3%; contribution to real GDP growth: 5.15%#
- Growth in private consumption expenditure: 0.8%; contribution to real GDP growth: 0.23%#
- Growth in gross fixed capital formation: 1.2%; contribution to real GDP growth: 0.16%#
- GDP deflator growth rate: 0.4%
- Consumer price inflation rate: 0.8%
- Median monthly employment earnings growth rate: 0.9%
- Unemployment rate: 1.8%
- Unemployment rate of Macao residents: 2.3%
- The Macao SAR government’s current revenue: MOP 123.7 billion
#As these three expenditure items only constitute part of GDP, their combined contribution does not equal the real GDP growth rate
About the Macroeconometric Structural Model of Macao
The Macroeconometric Structural Model of Macao is a quarterly simultaneous-equations econometric model which covers seven blocks of Macao’s economy: consumption, investment, external trade, prices, government, labour market, and monetary sector. It includes 87 equations and 306 variables. Time series data start from the first quarter of 1998 and is updated once new data are available. Its results provide the community with a timely understanding of the state of Macao’s economy and support prudent decision-making. The model was founded by the late Prof Sir James Mirrlees, winner of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences and honorary doctor of social sciences of the University of Macau (UM), as well as faculty members in the Department of Economics of UM. The research team is led by Kwan Fung, with members including Chan Chi Shing, Ho Wai Hong, and Gary Wong Ka Kei. The project is now managed by the Centre for Macau Studies of UM.
