News Express: UM releases Macroeconomic Forecast for Macao 2024

新聞快訊:澳大發表2024宏觀經濟預測


 

澳大發表2024年宏觀經濟預測
UM releases the Macroeconomic Forecast for Macao 2024

 


澳大發表2024宏觀經濟預測

澳門大學澳門研究中心及經濟學系發表2024年最新宏觀經濟預測,預計2024年的經濟增長處於8.3%至21.0%之間;服務出口增長為10.3%至26.7%之間;澳門特區政府最終收入維持在953億元至1,096億元左右。
 
基於內地旅客仍然是影響澳門發展的主要因素,以及沒有重大公共衛生影響正常社會運作的前設下,課題組考慮兩個內地旅客人數的可能性:情景一較樂觀────2024年人數回復到2019年水平;情景二則較審慎────2024年人數比2023年增加5%;據此,預測本地生產總值的基線分別增長21.0%至4,222億元(2019年的96.1%)(情景一)和8.3%至3,776億元(2019年的85.9%)(情景二)(增長率是與去年同期比較之實質變動率、絕對值以2021年環比物量計算);服務出口增長的基線預測分別為26.7%(情景一)和10.3%(情景二);整體失業率分別是1.9%(情景一)和2.1%(情景二);本地居民失業率分別是2.6%(情景一)和2.8%(情景二);預計澳門特區政府經常收入分別是1,096億元(情景一)和953億元(情景二)。
 
在接近三年防疫管控後,澳門於2022年12月改變防疫政策。2023年旅客人數開始回升,當中香港旅客復甦較快,2023年1至10月達到595萬人次,為2019年同期的97.1%;內地旅客人數在2023年1至10月則達到1,532萬人次,為2019年同期的64.4%;而其他地區旅客則復甦較慢,2023年1至10月人數為142萬人次,僅是2019年同期的40.7%。基於旅遊復甦,2023年首三季的實質服務出口達到2,009億元,是2019年同期的79.6%,當中實質博彩服務出口復甦較慢,僅為1,011億元,是2019年同期的56.1%。內部需求方面,私人消費需求和投資需求復甦表現良好,實質私人消費支出首三季為818億元,是2019年同期的98.2%,而實質固定資本形成總額首三季為358億元,是2019年同期的79.6%。物價維持平穩,2023年1至10月的消費物價通脹率僅為0.9%。勞動市場逐步復甦,2023年第3季整體失業率為2.4%,而本地居民失業率為3.1%,較2019年第3季的1.8%和2.5%仍然為高,但較2022年第3季最高的4.0%和5.2%回落不少;工作收入則恢復快速,2023年第3季每月工作收入中位數為18,000元,已經超過2019年同期的17,000元。
 
根據國際貨幣基金在2023年10月的預測,全球經濟增長將從2022年的3.5%降至2023年的3.0%和2024年的2.9%。隨著政策收緊開始產生負面影響,已開發經濟體經濟增長率預計將從2022年的2.6%放緩至2023年的1.5%和2024年的1.4%。新興市場和發展中經濟體2023年和2024年的經濟增長率預計將小幅下降,從2022年的4.1%降至2023年和2024年的4.0%。
 
課題組預計2024年澳門將會面對內地經濟發展的不確定性:房地產市場收縮、地方政府債務和企業債務都會影響居民收入,降低他們到澳門旅遊的興趣和消費能力。因此,課題組考慮兩個情景:情景一假設內地經濟增長放緩對澳門的影響較小,內地旅客人數持續有較高增長且2024年內地旅客人數回復到2019年水平。情景二則假設內地經濟增長放緩對澳門的影響較大,2024年的內地旅客人數只有很低增長,僅比2023年增加5%。
 
 
基於上述兩個情景,主要經濟變數預測如下:
 
• 本地生產總值的基線預測分別增長21.0%至4,222億元(2019年的96.1%)(情景一)和8.3%至3,776億元(2019年的85.9%)(情景二)。
 
• 服務出口增長的基線預測分別為26.7%(情景一)和10.3%(情景二)。
 
• 私人消費增長的基線預測為5.3%(情景一)和5.0%(情景二)。
 
• 固定資產形成的基線預測分別上升11.2%(情景一)和7.2%(情景二)。
 
• 物價變動(本地生產總值平減指數)的基線預測為上漲3.3%(情景一)和2.4%(情景二);消費物價指數升幅則為1.5%。
 
• 每月工作收入的基線預測分別上調5.6%(情景一)和4.9%(情景二)。
 
• 失業率的基線預測分別是1.9%(情景一)和2.1%(情景二),而本地居民失業率則分別是2.6%(情景一)和2.8%(情景二)。
 
• 預計澳門特區政府經常收入分別是1,096億元(情景一)和953億元(情景二)。
 
 
為了能及時研判澳門宏觀經濟的變化,從2024年起,課題組試行按季公布預測數據。
 
 
《澳門宏觀經濟模型》簡介
 
《澳門宏觀經濟模型》是一個大型季度聯立方程計量模型,目前包含澳門經濟中七個主要部分——消費、投資、對外貿易、價格、政府部門、就業市場以及金融系統,共有306個變數和88條方程式,所用數據由1998年第1季開始,模型估算會隨著數據發表而定時更新,提供及時和有用的澳門經濟分析,協助決策者對未來作出合理的規劃。此模型由澳大榮譽博士、諾貝爾經濟學獎得主前詹姆士‧莫里斯教授和經濟學系老師開發與管理,課題組成員包括陳志誠、何偉雄和關鋒,項目現由澳大澳門研究中心管理。

欲瀏覽官網版可登入以下連結:
https://www.um.edu.mo/zh-hant/news-and-press-releases/press-release/detail/57422/


UM releases Macroeconomic Forecast for Macao 2024

The Centre for Macau Studies and the Department of Economics of the University of Macau (UM) have released the Macroeconomic Forecast for Macao 2024, according to which Macao’s economic growth in 2024 will be between 8.3% and 21.0%, growth in exports of services will be between 10.3% and 26.7%, and the final revenue of the Macao SAR Government will remain between approximately MOP 95.3 billion and MOP 109.6 billion.

Based on the fact that visitors from mainland China are still the main factor affecting the development of Macao’s economy, and based on the assumption that there is no major public health impact on Macao’s normal social operations, the research team considered two possibilities for mainland visitor arrivals: in Scenario 1, which is more optimistic, the mainland visitor arrivals in 2024 will return to the level of 2019; in Scenario 2, which is more conservative, the mainland visitor arrivals in 2024 will increase by 5% over 2023. Based on these two scenarios, the research team has made the following forecasts: 1) the baseline forecasts for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth are 21.0%, reaching MOP 422.2 billion (96.1% of 2019) (in Scenario 1), and 8.3%, reaching MOP 377.6 billion (85.9% of 2019) (in Scenario 2) respectively (the year-on-year growth rates are expressed in absolute values calculated using the chain volume measures for the year 2021); 2) the baseline forecasts for services export growth are 26.7% (Scenario 1) and 10.3% (Scenario 2) respectively; 3) the overall unemployment rate is projected to be 1.9% (Scenario 1) and 2.1% (Scenario 2) respectively; 4) the unemployment rate of residents is projected to be 2.6% (Scenario 1) and 2.8% (Scenario 2) respectively; and 5) the Macao SAR Government’s recurring revenue is projected to be MOP 109.6 billion (Scenario 1) and MOP 95.3 billion (Scenario 2) respectively.

Macao changed its anti-epidemic policy in December 2022 after nearly three years of epidemic prevention and control. Visitor arrivals began to recover in 2023, with Hong Kong visitor arrivals recovering faster, reaching 5.95 million between January and October 2023, which was 97.1% of the same period in 2019. Mainland visitor arrivals reached 15.32 million between January and October 2023, representing 64.4% of the same period in 2019. However, the recovery of visitor arrivals from other regions was slower, with 1.42 million arrivals between January and October 2023, only 40.7% of the same period in 2019. On the back of tourism recovery, the exports of services reached MOP 200.9 billion in the first three quarters of 2023, representing 79.6% of the same period in 2019. However, the exports of gaming services recovered more slowly, and were only MOP 101.1 billion in the first three quarters of 2023, representing 56.1% of the same period in 2019. For domestic demand, both private consumption and investment have recovered well. The private consumption expenditure was MOP 81.8 billion in the first three quarters of 2023, which was 98.2% of the same period in 2019, while the gross fixed capital formation was MOP 35.8 billion in the first three quarters of 2023, which was 79.6% of the same period in 2019. Consumer prices remained stable, with the consumer price inflation rate between January and October 2023 at just 0.9%. The labour market is gradually recovering. While the overall unemployment rate in the third quarter of 2023 was 2.4%, the unemployment rate among local residents was 3.1%. Although these two rates were still higher compared to the figures of 1.8% and 2.5% recorded in the third quarter of 2019, they were significantly lower than the peaks of 4.0% and 5.2% recorded in the third quarter of 2022. Employment earnings have recovered quickly, with a median monthly employment earnings of MOP 18,000 in the third quarter of 2023, which has surpassed the level of MOP 17,000 recorded in the same period in 2019.

According to the October 2023 forecast by the International Monetary Fund, global economic growth will slow from 3.5% in 2022 to 3.0% in 2023 and to 2.9% in 2024. As policy tightening begins to have a negative impact, advanced economies are expected to slow from 2.6% in 2022 to 1.5% in 2023 and to 1.4% in 2024. Emerging market and developing economies are projected to have a modest decline in growth, from 4.1% in 2022 to 4.0% in both 2023 and 2024.

The research team expects that Macao will face uncertainties about the economic development in mainland China in 2024: the contraction of the real estate market, as well as local government and corporate debt will affect residents’ income, leading to a decrease in their interest and purchasing power in travelling to Macao. Therefore, the research team formulated two scenarios: Scenario 1 assumes that the slowdown in mainland China’s economic growth will have less impact on Macao—mainland visitor arrivals will continue to grow at a higher rate and returns to the level of 2019 by 2024. Scenario 2 assumes that the slowdown in mainland China’s economic growth will have a greater impact on Macao— mainland visitor arrivals in 2024 will have a very small growth, only 5% compared to 2023.

Based on the above two scenarios, the forecasts of major economic variables are as follows:

• The baseline forecasts for GDP growth are 21.0% to MOP 422.2 billion (96.1% of 2019 level) (Scenario 1), and 8.3% to MOP 377.6 billion (85.9% of 2019 level) (Scenario 2) respectively.

• The baseline forecasts for growth in the exports of services are 26.7% (Scenario 1), and 10.3% (Scenario 2) respectively.

• The baseline forecasts for growth in private consumption expenditure are 5.3% (Scenario 1), and 5.0% (Scenario 2) respectively.

• The baseline forecasts for growth in gross fixed capital formation are 11.2% (Scenario 1), and 7.2% (Scenario 2) respectively.

• The inflation rate (measured by GDP deflator) is projected to rise by 3.3% (Scenario 1), and 2.4% (Scenario 2) respectively; and consumer price index is projected to increase by 1.5%.

• Median monthly employment earnings are projected to increase by 5.6% (Scenario 1), and 4.9% (Scenario 2) respectively.

• Unemployment rate is projected to be 1.9% (Scenario 1), and 2.1% (Scenario 2) respectively. The unemployment rate among local residents is projected to be 2.6% (Scenario 1), and 2.8% (Scenario 2) respectively.

• The Macao SAR Government’s recurring revenue is projected to be MOP 109.6 billion (Scenario 1), and MOP 95.3 billion (Scenario 2) respectively.

 

In order to timely analyse and assess the changes in Macao’s macro economy, starting from 2024, the research team will try to publish forecasts on a quarterly basis.

About the Macroeconometric Structural Model of Macao

The Macroeconometric Structural Model of Macao is a quarterly simultaneous-equation econometric model which covers seven blocks of Macao’s economy: consumption, investment, external sector, prices, government, labour market, and monetary sector. It includes 88 equations and 306 variables. Time series data start from the first quarter of 1998 and is updated once new data are available. Its results provide the community with a timely understanding of the state of Macao’s economy and support prudent decision-making. The model was founded by the late Prof Sir James Mirrlees, Nobel laureate in Economic Sciences and honorary doctor of social sciences of the University of Macau (UM), as well as faculty members in the Department of Economics of UM. Members of the research team include Chan Chi Shing, Ho Wai Hong, and Kwan Fung. The project is now managed by the Centre for Macau Studies of UM.

To read the news on UM’s official website, please visit the following link:
https://www.um.edu.mo/news-and-press-releases/press-release/detail/57422/