News Express: UM releases revised macroeconomic forecast for Macao 2024
新聞快訊：澳大發表2024年宏觀經濟修訂預測
澳大發表2024年宏觀經濟修訂預測
UM releases the revised Macroeconomic Forecast for Macao 2024
澳大發表2024年宏觀經濟修訂預測
澳門大學澳門研究中心及經濟學系更新2024年宏觀經濟預測。基於中國經濟增長顯著放緩，課題組修訂2024下半年中國內地旅客人數的假設為2019年同期的85%；據此，預測澳門生產總值的基線增長為12.1%（按年實質變動率）至2019年的89.7%─—即3,993億元（以2021年環比物量計算），而其他主要經濟變數的基線預測調整為：服務出口增長15.3%、私人消費支出增長5.8%、通脹率為0.9%、整體失業率為1.9%、澳門居民失業率為2.5%、澳門特別行政區政府經常收入為1,122億元。
2023年，澳門旅客人數開始回升。踏入2024年第1季，復甦步伐仍然不錯，整體旅客人數達到888萬人次，為2019年第1季的85.7%，當中香港旅客達到182萬人次，超過2019年第1季的水平；中國內地旅客人數則達到629萬人次，為2019年第1季的84.5%；而其他地區旅客人數為77萬人次，為2019年第1季的68.5%。然而，進入2024年第2季，復甦步伐開始放慢，整體旅客人數為784萬人次，僅是2019年第2季的79.0%，當中中國內地旅客人數為525萬人次，是2019年第2季的76.4%；香港旅客為179萬人次，是2019年第2季的94.2%；而其他地區旅客人數為81萬人次，是2019年第2季的69.8%。基於旅客人數復甦放緩，2024年第2季的實質服務出口為730億元，按年僅增長6.1%，當中實質旅客博彩消費為450億元，按年增長22.6%；而實質旅客非博彩消費為207億元，按年更下降9.5%。內部需求方面，私人消費和投資需求穩定復甦，2024年第2季實質私人消費支出為288億元，按年增長4.8%，已超過2019年第2季的水平，當中食品、飲品及煙草和服務實質消費支出較為理想，而消費品和外地實質消費支出則較弱，仍未達到2019年第2季的水平。實質固定資本形成總額為131億元，按年增長6.7%。物價維持平穩，2024年1至7月的消費物價通脹率僅為1.0%，當中佔比最重的食物及非酒精飲品，其通脹率為1.4%（外出用膳的通脹率為2.7%），佔比第二重的住屋及燃料，其通脹率為0.4%。勞動市場緊張，2024年第2季整體失業率為1.7%，而澳門居民失業率為2.3%，兩者都達至2019年第2季的低水平；整體就業人口每月工作收入中位數為17,900元，超過2019年同期的16,300元，而澳門居民每月工作收入中位數為20,000元，已達到2019年同期的水平。
2024年1至7月中國內地旅客人數為1,372萬人次，是2019年的81.3%。課題組基於以上數據，修訂上次預測的假設──2024下半年中國內地旅客人數為2019年同期的85%。
基於上述假設，主要經濟變數預測如下：
- 澳門生產總值的基線預測增長1%至3,993億元（2019年的89.7%）。
- 服務出口增長的基線預測為3%。
- 私人消費支出增長的基線預測為8%。
- 固定資產形成的基線預測為上升7%。
- 物價變動（澳門生產總值平減指數）的基線預測為上漲3%；消費物價指數升幅則為0.9%。
- 每月工作收入中位數的基線預測為上調8%。
- 失業率的基線預測是9%，而澳門居民失業率則是2.5%。
- 預計澳門特區政府經常收入是1,122億元。
《澳門宏觀經濟模型》簡介
《澳門宏觀經濟模型》是一個大型季度聯立方程計量模型，目前包含澳門經濟中七個主要部分——消費、投資、對外貿易、價格、政府部門、就業市場以及金融系統，共有209個變數和87條方程式，所用數據由1998年第1季開始，模型估算會隨著數據發表而定時更新，提供及時和有用的澳門經濟分析，協助決策者對未來作出合理的規劃。此模型由澳門大學榮譽博士、諾貝爾經濟學獎得主詹姆士‧莫里斯教授和經濟學系老師開發與管理，課題組成員包括陳志誠、何偉雄、關鋒和黃嘉基，項目現由澳門大學澳門研究中心管理。
欲瀏覽官網版可登入以下連結:
https://www.um.edu.mo/zh-hant/news-and-press-releases/presss-release/detail/59455/
UM releases revised macroeconomic forecast for Macao 2024
The Centre for Macau Studies and the Department of Economics of the University of Macau (UM) have released the revised macroeconomic forecast for Macao 2024. Given the apparent slowdown in China’s economic growth, the research team has revised the assumption of the number of visitor arrivals from mainland China in the second half of 2024 to 85% of the same period in 2019. Accordingly, the baseline forecast for Macao’s GDP growth is 12.1% (year-on-year real growth rate), reaching 89.7% of the 2019 level, equivalent to MOP399.3 billion (in chained (2021) dollar). The baseline forecasts for other major economic variables have been revised as follows: the growth of services exports is projected at 15.3%; the growth of private consumption expenditure at 5.8%; the inflation rate at 0.9%; the overall unemployment rate at 1.9%; the unemployment rate among Macao residents at 2.5%; and the Macao SAR Government’s current revenue at MOP112.2 billion.
In 2023, the number of visitor arrivals to Macao began to rebound. In the first quarter of 2024, the recovery remained strong, with a total of 8.88 million visitors, representing 85.7% of the first quarter of 2019. Among them, the number of visitor arrivals from Hong Kong reached 1.82 million, surpassing the level of the first quarter of 2019. The number of visitor arrivals from mainland China reached 6.29 million, which was 84.5% of the first quarter of 2019; while the number of visitor arrivals from other regions totalled 0.77 million, which was 68.5% of the first quarter of 2019. However, in the second quarter of 2024, the recovery began to slow down, with the total number of visitor arrivals at 7.84 million, only 79.0% of the second quarter of 2019. Among them, the number of visitor arrivals from mainland China was 5.25 million, 76.4% of the second quarter of 2019; the number of visitor arrivals from Hong Kong was 1.79 million, 94.2% of the second quarter of 2019; and the number of visitor arrivals from other regions was 0.81 million, 69.8% of the second quarter of 2019. Due to the slowdown in the recovery of visitor arrivals, real exports of services in the second quarter of 2024 only reached MOP73 billion, a year-on-year increase of only 6.1%. Real gaming expenditure by non-residents reached MOP45 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22.6%; while real non-gaming expenditure by non-residents was MOP20.7 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 9.5%. For domestic demand, both private consumption and investment showed stable recovery. In the second quarter of 2024, real private consumption expenditure was MOP28.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, surpassing the level in the second quarter of 2019. Notably, real consumption expenditure on food, beverages, tobacco, and services was strong, while real consumption expenditure on consumer goods and abroad was relatively weak, still below the level of the second quarter of 2019. The gross fixed capital formation was MOP13.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%. Prices have remained stable, with the consumer price inflation rate from January to July 2024 at just 1.0%. The inflation rate of food and non-alcoholic beverages, which accounted for the largest share, was 1.4% (with the inflation rate of eating out at 2.7%), and the inflation rate of housing and fuels, which accounted for the second largest share, was 0.4%. The labour market was tight. In the second quarter of 2024, the overall unemployment rate was 1.7% and the unemployment rate among Macao residents was 2.3%, both reaching the low levels of the second quarter of 2019. The overall median monthly employment earnings was MOP17,900, higher than the MOP16,300 of the same period in 2019, while the median monthly employment earnings of Macao residents was MOP20,000, reaching the level of the same period in 2019.
From January to July 2024, the number of visitor arrivals from mainland China was 13.72 million, accounting for 81.3% of the same period in 2019. Based on the above data, the research team has revised the previous assumption of the number of visitor arrivals from mainland China in the second half of 2024 to 85% of the same period in 2019.
Based on the above assumption, the revised baseline forecasts for major economic variables are as follows:
- Macao’s GDP is expected to grow by 12.1%, equivalent to MOP399.3 billion (89.7% of the 2019 level).
- Services exports are projected to increase by 15.3%.
- Private consumption expenditure is anticipated to rise by 5.8%.
- Gross fixed capital formation is forecast to grow by 7.7%.
- The inflation rate (as measured by the GDP deflator) is projected to be 1.3%, with the consumer price index expected to rise by 0.9%.
- Median monthly employment earnings are predicted to increase by 2.8%.
- The unemployment rate is expected to be 1.9%, while the unemployment rate among Macao residents is projected to be 2.5%.
- The Macao SAR Government’s current revenue is anticipated to be MOP112.2 billion.
About the Macroeconometric Structural Model of Macao
The Macroeconometric Structural Model of Macao is a quarterly simultaneous-equations econometric model which covers seven blocks of Macao’s economy: consumption, investment, external trade, prices, government, labour market, and monetary sector. It includes 87 equations and 209 variables. Time series data start from the first quarter of 1998 and is updated once new data are available. Its results provide the community with a timely understanding of the state of Macao’s economy and support prudent decision-making. The model was founded by the late Prof Sir James Mirrlees, Nobel laureate in economic sciences and honorary doctor of social sciences of the University of Macau (UM), as well as faculty members in the Department of Economics of UM. Members of the research team include Chan Chi Shing, researcher in the Centre for Macau Studies; Ho Wai Hong and Gary Wong Ka Kei, associate professors in the Department of Economics; and Kwan Fung, assistant professor in the Department of Economics. The project is now managed by the Centre for Macau Studies of UM.
To read the news on UM’s official website, please visit the following link:
https://www.um.edu.mo/news-and-press-releases/presss-release/detail/59455/