News Express: UM releases Revised Macroeconomic Forecast for Macao 2024
新聞快訊：澳大發表2024年澳門宏觀經濟修訂預測
澳大發表2024年澳門宏觀經濟修訂預測
UM releases the Revised Macroeconomic Forecast for Macao 2024
澳大發表2024年澳門宏觀經濟修訂預測
澳門大學澳門研究中心及經濟學系發表2024年澳門宏觀經濟修訂預測。基於2024年最新的經濟數據，並預計中國內地經濟增長放緩對澳門的影響較小，課題組修訂中國內地旅客人數的假設為2019年的90%；據此，預測澳門生產總值的基線增長為16.8%（按年實質變動率）至2019年的94.5%──即4,153億元（以2021年環比物量計算），而其他主要經濟變數的基線預測調整為：服務出口增長23.4%、整體失業率為2.2%、澳門居民失業率為2.8%、特區政府經常收入為1,002億元。
2023年，澳門的旅客人數開始回升，整體旅客人數達到2,821萬人次，為2019年的71.6%，當中香港旅客復甦較快，2023年達到720萬人次，為2019年的97.8%；中國內地旅客人數在2023年則達到1,905萬人次，為2019年的68.2%；而其他地區旅客則復甦較慢，2023年人數為197萬人次，僅是2019年的47.7%。基於旅遊復甦，2023年的實質服務出口達到2,792億元，是2019年的82.9%，亦因2022年的基數較低，2023年的實質服務出口按年增長223.9%，當中實質旅客博彩消費復甦較慢，僅為1,454億元，是2019年的60.8%；而實質旅客非博彩消費復甦較快，達到948億元，已經超過2019年水平，為2019年的121.5%。內部需求方面，私人消費需求和投資需求穩定復甦，2023年實質私人消費支出為1,094億元，是2019年的97.8%，而實質固定資本形成總額為505億元，是2019年的77.0%。物價維持平穩，2023年的消費物價通脹率僅為0.9%。勞動市場逐步復甦，失業率逐步回落，2023年第4季整體失業率為2.3%，而澳門居民失業率為2.9%，較2019年第3季的1.8%和2.5%仍然為高，但較2022年第3季最高的4.0%和5.2%回落不少；工作收入則恢復快速，2023年第4季每月工作收入中位數為17,600元，已經超過2019年同期的17,000元。
2024年1至2月整體旅客人數達到616萬人次，為2019年的88.3%，當中，中國內地旅客人數為451萬人次，是2019年的89.0%；香港旅客為116萬人次，是2019年的96.9%；而其他地區旅客為50萬人次，是2019年的69.2%。課題組基於以上數據，並預計中國內地經濟增長放緩對澳門的影響較小，修訂上次預測的假設──2024年中國內地旅客人數為2019年的90%。
基於上述假設，主要經濟變數預測如下：
- 澳門生產總值的基線預測增長8%至4,153億元（2019年的94.5%）。
- 服務出口增長的基線預測為4%。
- 私人消費支出增長的基線預測為0%。
- 固定資產形成的基線預測為上升5%。
- 物價變動（本地生產總值平減指數）的基線預測為上漲5%；消費物價指數升幅則為1.5%。
- 每月工作收入中位數的基線預測為上調1%。
- 失業率的基線預測為2%，澳門居民失業率則為2.8%。
- 澳門特區政府經常收入預計是1,002億元。
《澳門宏觀經濟模型》簡介
《澳門宏觀經濟模型》是一個大型季度聯立方程計量模型，目前包含澳門經濟中七個主要部分——消費、投資、對外貿易、價格、政府部門、就業市場以及金融系統，共有305個變數和88條方程式，所用數據由1998年第1季開始，模型估算會隨著數據發表而定時更新，提供及時和有用的澳門經濟分析，協助決策者對未來作出合理的規劃。此模型由澳門大學榮譽博士、諾貝爾經濟學獎得主詹姆士‧莫里斯教授和經濟學系老師開發，課題組成員包括陳志誠、何偉雄和關鋒，項目現由澳門大學澳門研究中心管理。
欲瀏覽官網版可登入以下連結:
https://www.um.edu.mo/zh-hant/news-and-press-releases/campus-news/detail/58113/
UM releases Revised Macroeconomic Forecast for Macao 2024
The Centre for Macau Studies and the Department of Economics of the University of Macau (UM) have released the Revised Macroeconomic Forecast for Macao 2024. Based on the latest economic data in 2024, the research team anticipates that the economic slowdown in mainland China will have a relatively small impact on Macao and has, therefore, revised the projected number of visitor arrivals from mainland China to be 90% of the 2019 level. On this basis, the baseline forecast for Macao’s GDP growth is projected to be 16.8% (year-on-year real growth rate), which corresponds to 94.5% of the 2019 level, amounting to MOP 415.3 billion (calculated using the chain volume measures for the year 2021). The revised baseline forecasts for other major economic variables are as follows: the growth of exports of services is projected to be 23.4%; the overall unemployment rate is expected to be 2.2%; the unemployment rate of Macao residents is expected to be 2.8%; and the government current revenue is estimated to reach MOP 100.2 billion.
In 2023, visitor arrivals to Macao began to show signs of recovery, with the total number reaching 28.21 million, equivalent to 71.6% of the 2019 level. Among them, visitor arrivals from Hong Kong exhibited a faster rebound, reaching 7.2 million, which accounted for 97.8% of the 2019 level; while visitor arrivals from mainland China reached 19.05 million, representing 68.2% of the 2019 level. In contrast, the growth in visitor arrivals from other regions was slower. Only 1.97 million visitors from regions outside Hong Kong and mainland China were recorded, accounting for 47.7% of the 2019 level. On the back of tourism recovery, Macao’s exports of services surged to MOP 279.2 billion in 2023, accounting for 82.9% of the 2019 level. This marked a substantial year-on-year increase of 223.9% due to a low base in 2022. However, the growth in gaming expenditure by visitors was comparatively slower, reaching only MOP 145.4 billion, equivalent to 60.8% of the 2019 level. In contrast, non-gaming expenditure by visitors experienced a swift rebound, surpassing the 2019 level and reaching MOP 94.8 billion, which accounted for 121.5% of the 2019 level. Regarding domestic demand, both personal consumption and investment exhibited a steady recovery. In 2023, personal consumption expenditure reached MOP 109.4 billion, equivalent to 97.8% of the 2019 level; while gross fixed capital formation amounted to MOP 50.5 billion, representing 77.0% of the 2019 level. Prices remained stable in 2023, as evidenced by a consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate of just 0.9%. The labour market gradually regained strength, leading to a decline in the overall unemployment rate to 2.3% and the unemployment rate of Macao residents to 2.9% in the fourth quarter of 2023. The rates were still higher than the figures of 1.8% and 2.5% observed in the third quarter of 2019, but represented a significant decrease from the high of 4.0% and 5.2% recorded in the third quarter of 2022. Employment earnings rebounded swiftly, with median monthly employment earnings reaching MOP 17,600 in the fourth quarter of 2023, surpassing the MOP 17,000 reported in the same period in 2019.
In January and February 2024, total visitor arrivals reached 6.16 million, representing 88.3% of the 2019 level. Among these arrivals, 4.51 million were visitors from mainland China, accounting for 89.0% of the 2019 level; 1.16 million were visitors from Hong Kong, reaching 96.9% of the 2019 level; and 0.50 million were visitors from other regions, representing 69.2% of the 2019 level. Based on the above data, the research team anticipates that the slowdown in mainland China’s economic growth will have a smaller impact on Macao. As a result, they have revised their previous forecast assumption regarding the number of visitor arrivals from mainland China in 2024, now projecting it to be 90% of the figure recorded in 2019.
Based on the above assumption, the revised baseline forecasts for major economic variables are as follows:
- Macao’s GDP is expected to grow by 16.8% to MOP 415.3 billion (equivalent to 94.5% of the 2019 level).
- The exports of services are projected to surge by 23.4%.
- Personal consumption expenditure is forecast to grow by 4.0%.
- Total gross fixed capital formation is anticipated to rise by 10.5%.
- Inflation, as measured by the GDP deflator, is expected to increase by 4.5%, while consumer prices are projected to rise by 1.5%.
- Median monthly employment earnings are expected to increase by 2.1%.
- The unemployment rate is projected to be 2.2%, with the unemployment rate of Macao residents expected to be 2.8%.
- The Macao SAR Government’s current revenue is forecast to be MOP 100.2 billion.
About the Macroeconometric Structural Model of Macao
The Macroeconometric Structural Model of Macao is a quarterly simultaneous-equations econometric model covering seven blocks of Macao’s economy, namely consumption, investment, external trade, prices, government, labour market, and monetary sector. It includes 305 variables and 88 equations. The time series data start from the first quarter of 1998 and is updated once new data are available. Its results provide a timely understanding of the state of Macao’s economy and support prudent decision-making. The model was created by the late James Mirrlees, winner of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences and honorary doctor of social sciences of the University of Macau (UM), and faculty members in the Department of Economics at UM. Members of the research team include Chan Chi Shing, Ho Wai Hong, and Kwan Fung. The model is currently managed by the Centre of Macau Studies of UM.
To read the news on UM’s official website, please visit the following link:
https://www.um.edu.mo/news-and-press-releases/campus-news/detail/58113/