News Express: UM releases macroeconomic forecast for Macao 2025
新聞快訊：澳大發表2025年宏觀經濟預測
澳大發表2025年宏觀經濟預測
UM releases the macroeconomic forecast for Macao 2025
澳大發表2025年宏觀經濟預測
澳門大學澳門研究中心及經濟學系發表2025年宏觀經濟預測。基於中國經濟增長明顯放緩，以及不同國家的經濟政策所帶來的不確定性，全球經濟前景面臨下行風險。課題組預測2025年澳門本地生產總值的基線增速為7.7%，其他主要經濟變量的基線預測為：服務出口增長7.6%、私人消費支出增長3.1%、通脹率1.1%、整體失業率1.8%、澳門居民失業率2.3%、澳門特別行政區政府名義經常收入1,118億元。
疫後澳門經濟逐步恢復正常。2023年旅客人數開始回升，復甦步伐在2024年第一季仍然不錯，整體旅客人數達到888萬人次，按年大幅增長79.4%；但第二季增長步伐開始放慢，整體旅客人數為784萬人次，按年僅上升17.1%；第三季的旅客人數增長持續緩慢，整體旅客人數為920萬人次，按年增長下降至11.1%。中國內地旅客人數達到668萬人次，按年增長14.7%；香港旅客則為179萬人次，按年下跌6.0%；而其他地區旅客人數為73萬人次，按年上升31.7%。基於旅客人數增長放緩，2024年第三季的實質服務出口為720億元，按年僅增長1.3%，當中實質旅客博彩消費為429億元，按年增長11.2%；而實質旅客非博彩消費為201億元，按年下降14.5%。
內部需求方面，私人消費和投資需求穩定增長，2024年第三季實質私人消費支出為289億元，按年增長1.9%。當中食品、飲品及煙草和外地實質消費支出增長較為理想，分別上升5.2%和5.9%；而消費品實質消費支出則較弱，按年下跌2.7%。實質固定資本形成總額為160億元，按年增長16.0%。
物價維持平穩，2024年1至11月的消費物價通脹率僅為0.8%，當中佔比最重的食物及非酒精飲品，其通脹率為1.2%（外出用膳的通脹率為2.4%），佔比第二重的住屋及燃料，其通脹率為0.5%。
勞動市場持續緊張，2024年第二季及第三季整體失業率均為1.7%，而澳門居民失業率均為2.3%；2024年第三季整體每月工作收入中位數為18,000元，超過2019年同期的17,000元，而澳門居民每月工作收入中位數為20,500元，亦超過2019年同期的20,000元。
根據國際貨幣基金組織在2024年10月的預測，全球經濟增長在2024年及2025年增長率均為3.2%。總體而言，全球預計將維持穩定的經濟成長，惟不同國家的經濟政策帶來之不確定性導致全球經濟前景面臨下行風險。美國經濟增長率預計在2024年及2025年分別為2.8%及2.2%，而歐元區經濟增長率則預計分別為0.8%及1.2%。中國内地則因結構調整所帶來的負面效果和持續之弱預期，經濟增長明顯放緩，2024年第三季增長為4.6%；而未來與美國的貿易摩擦可能更具不確定性，中央政府在財政政策與金融政策加大力度下試圖增加民間消費與投資。這些外部需求與内需的發展也影響澳門另一個主要服務出口市場──香港的增長放緩，2024年第三季增長為1.8%。
由於各種不穩定因素持續影響澳門的經濟增長，課題組預測2025年主要經濟變量如下：
- 本地生產總值增長的基線預測為7%。
- 服務出口增長的基線預測為6%。
- 私人消費支出增長的基線預測為1%。
- 固定資產形成的基線預測為上升0%。
- 物價變動（本地生產總值平減指數）的基線預測為上漲5%；消費物價指數升幅則為1.1%。
- 每月工作收入中位數的基線預測為上調7%。
- 失業率的基線預測是8%，而澳門居民失業率則是2.3%。
- 預計澳門特區政府的名義經常收入是1,118億元。
《澳門宏觀經濟模型》簡介
《澳門宏觀經濟模型》是一個大型季度聯立方程計量模型，目前包含澳門經濟中七個主要部分——消費、投資、對外貿易、價格、政府部門、就業市場以及金融系統，共有301個變數和87條方程式，所用數據由1998年第一季開始，模型估算會隨著數據發表而定時更新，提供及時和有用的澳門經濟分析，協助決策者對未來作出合理的規劃。此模型由澳大榮譽博士、諾貝爾經濟學獎得主前詹姆士‧莫里斯教授和經濟學系老師開發與管理，課題組成員包括陳志誠、何偉雄、關鋒和黃嘉基，項目現由澳大澳門研究中心管理。
欲瀏覽官網版可登入以下連結:
https://www.um.edu.mo/zh-hant/news-and-press-releases/presss-release/detail/60115/
UM releases macroeconomic forecast for Macao 2025
The Centre for Macau Studies and the Department of Economics of the University of Macau (UM) have released the macroeconomic forecast for Macao 2025. The global economic outlook faces downward risks due to the significant slowdown in China’s economic growth and the uncertainties brought about by various countries’ economic policies. The research team predicts that Macao’s baseline GDP growth in 2025 will be 7.7%, while the baseline forecasts for other major economic variables are: exports of services will grow by 7.6%; private consumption expenditure will increase by 3.1%; the inflation rate will be 1.1%; the overall unemployment rate will be 1.8%; the unemployment rate of Macao residents will be 2.3%; and the Macao SAR Government’s current revenue will be MOP 111.8 billion.
Macao’s economy gradually returned to normal after the COVID-19 pandemic. The number of visitor arrivals began to recover in 2023. In the first quarter of 2024, the pace of recovery was good, with the total number of visitor arrivals reaching 8.88 million, a huge increase of 79.4% year-on-year. However, in the second quarter of 2024, the pace of growth began to slow down. The total number of visitor arrivals was 7.84 million, an increase of only 17.1% year-on-year. In the third quarter of 2024, the growth of visitor arrivals continued to slow. The overall number of visitor arrivals was 9.20 million, an increase of only 11.1% year-on-year. Among them, the number of visitor arrivals from mainland China reached 6.68 million, up 14.7% year-on-year; the number of visitor arrivals from Hong Kong was 1.79 million, down 6.0% year-on-year; while the number of visitor arrivals from other regions reached 0.73 million, up 31.7% year-on-year. Due to the slowdown in the growth of visitor arrivals, real exports of services in the third quarter of 2024 were MOP 72.0 billion, up 1.3% year-on-year, of which real gaming expenditure of non-residents was MOP 42.9 billion, up 11.2% year-on-year; while real non-gaming expenditure of non-residents was MOP 20.1 billion, down 14.5% year-on-year.
In terms of domestic demand, both private consumption and investment grew steadily. In the third quarter of 2024, real private consumption expenditure amounted to MOP 28.9 billion, an increase of 1.9% year-on-year. Among them, real consumption expenditure on food, beverages and tobacco and abroad showed promising growth, rising by 5.2% and 5.9% respectively; while real consumption expenditure on consumer goods was weaker, declining by 2.7% year-on-year. Gross fixed capital formation was amounted to MOP 16.0 billion, an increase of 16.0% year-on-year.
Prices remained stable, with the consumer price inflation rate from January to November 2024 at just 0.8%. The largest component, food and non-alcoholic beverages, had an inflation rate of 1.2% (the inflation rate for eating out and takeaway was 2.4%). The second largest component, housing and fuel, had an inflation rate of 0.5%.
The labour market remained tight, with the overall unemployment rate at 1.7% in both the second and third quarters of 2024, and the unemployment rate of Macao residents at 2.3%. The overall median monthly employment earnings in the third quarter of 2024 was MOP 18,000, exceeding the MOP 17,000 recorded in the same period of 2019, while the median monthly employment earnings of Macao residents was MOP 20,500, also higher than the MOP 20,000 recorded in the same period of 2019.
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF)’s forecast in October 2024, the global economy is expected to grow by 3.2% in both 2024 and 2025. Overall, the world is expected to maintain stable economic growth; however, uncertainties brought about by various countries’ economic policies has led to downside risks to the global economic outlook. The US economy is expected to grow by 2.8% in 2024 and 2.2% in 2025, while the euro area economy is expected to grow by 0.8% in 2024 and 1.2% in 2025. Mainland China’s economic growth has slowed significantly due to the negative impact of structural change and continued weak expectations, with a growth rate of 4.6% in the third quarter of 2024, and future trade frictions with the US may add more uncertainty to the economy. The Chinese central government tried to boost private consumption and investment through more proactive fiscal and financial policies. These developments in external and internal demands also slowed the economic growth of Hong Kong, another major services export market of Macao, with a growth rate of only 1.8% in the third quarter of 2024.
As various unstable factors continue to affect Macao’s economic growth, the baseline forecasts for major economic variables for 2025 are as follows:
- Macao’s GDP will grow by 7.7%.
- Exports of services will grow by 7.6%.
- Private consumption expenditure will grow by 3.1%.
- Gross fixed capital formation will grow by 8.0%.
- Consumer prices (as measured by the GDP deflator) will rise by 1.5%; and the CPI (composite) inflation rate will be 1.1%.
- Median monthly employment earnings will increase by 0.7%.
- The unemployment rate will be 1.8%, and the unemployment rate of Macao residents will be 2.3%.
- The Macao SAR Government’s current revenue will be MOP 111.8 billion.
About the Macroeconometric Structural Model of Macao
The Macroeconometric Structural Model of Macao is a quarterly simultaneous-equations econometric model which covers seven blocks of Macao’s economy: consumption, investment, external trade, prices, government, labour market, and monetary sector. It includes 87 equations and 301 variables. Time series data start from the first quarter of 1998 and is updated once new data are available. Its results provide the community with a timely understanding of the state of Macao’s economy and support prudent decision-making. The model was founded by the late Prof Sir James Mirrlees, Nobel laureate in economic sciences and honorary doctor of social sciences of the University of Macau (UM), and faculty members in the Department of Economics of UM. The research team includes Chan Chi Shing, Ho Wai Hong, Kwan Fung, and Gary Wong Ka Kei. The project is now managed by the Centre for Macau Studies of UM.
To read the news on UM’s official website, please visit the following link:
https://www.um.edu.mo/news-and-press-releases/presss-release/detail/60115/