News Express: UM releases revised Macroeconomic Forecast for Macao 2023
新聞快訊： 澳大發表2023年宏觀經濟修訂預測
主要經濟指標預測（2023）
The forecasts of major economic variables for 2023
澳大發表2023年宏觀經濟修訂預測
澳門大學澳門研究中心及經濟學系發表2023年宏觀經濟修訂預測。根據對澳門經濟的數月觀察和分析，課題組調整旅客數目的假設，預計2023年訪澳旅客將保持相對穩定的水平，並修改年初的經濟預測：2023年澳門實質經濟增長47.0%，服務出口急升101.2%，通脹率為1.2%，整體失業率為2.6%，本地居民失業率為3.3%，政府經常收入為765億元。
在接近三年的防疫後，澳門於2022年12月調整入境人士防疫措施。2023年旅客人數開始回升，當中香港旅客復甦較快，2023年1至4月達到224萬人次，為2019年同期的90.2%；中國內地旅客人數在2023年1至4月則達到462萬人次，為2019年同期的47.3%；而其他地區旅客則復甦較慢，2023年1至4月人數為35萬人次，僅是2019年同期的23.1%。基於旅遊復甦，2023年第1季的實質非博彩消費服務出口達到235億元，超過2019年第1季的水平，但實質博彩服務出口復甦較慢，僅為283億元，是2019年第1季的44.9%。內部需求方面，私人消費和投資復甦表現良好，實質私人消費支出為245億元，是2019年第1季的88.4%，而實質固定資本形成總額為117億元，是2019年第1季的82.2%。物價維持平穩，2023年1至4月的消費物價通脹率僅為0.8%。勞動市場逐步復甦，2023年第1季整體失業率為3.1%，而本地居民失業率為3.9%，較2019年第1季的1.7%和2.3%仍然為高，但較2022年第3季最高的4.0%和5.2%，回落不少；工作收入則恢復較快，2023年第1季每月工作收入中位數為17,000元，已經回到2019年第1季的水平。
根據數月觀察和分析澳門的經濟，課題組修訂旅客數目的假設並更新宏觀預測。預計2023年旅客人數將維持穩定的水平：第2季645萬人次 （2019年的60%），第3季694萬人次 （2019年的65%），第4季690萬人次 （2019年的70%）。
基於上述假設，主要宏觀經濟變數預測如下：
• 本地生產總值增長47.0%，預測區間由較悲觀的增長32.5%至較樂觀的增長61.6%。
• 服務出口的基線預測急升101.2%。
• 私人消費增長的基線預測為4.0%。
• 固定資產形成的基線預測上升1.0%。
• 物價變動（本地生產總值平減指數）的基線預測為上漲1.9%；消費物價指數升幅則為1.2%。
• 每月工作收入中位數的基線預測為上調9.6%。
• 整體失業率的基線預測為2.6%，而本地居民失業率則為3.3%。
• 澳門特區政府經常收入預測為765億元。
《澳門宏觀經濟模型》簡介
《澳門宏觀經濟模型》是一個大型季度聯立方程計量模型，目前包含澳門經濟中七個主要部分——消費、投資、對外貿易、價格、政府部門、就業市場以及金融系統，共有308個變數和89條方程式，所用數據由1998年第1季開始，模型估算會隨著數據發表而定時更新，提供及時和有用的澳門經濟分析，協助決策者對未來作出合理的規劃。此模型由澳門大學榮譽博士、諾貝爾經濟學獎得主前詹姆士‧莫里斯教授和經濟學系老師開發與管理，課題組成員包括陳志誠、何偉雄和關鋒，項目現由澳門大學澳門研究中心管理。
欲瀏覽官網版可登入以下連結:
https://www.um.edu.mo/zh-hant/news-and-press-releases/presss-release/detail/55928/
UM releases revised Macroeconomic Forecast for Macao 2023
The University of Macau (UM) Centre for Macau Studies and Department of Economics released the revised version of the Macroeconomic Forecast for Macao 2023. After several months of observation and analysis of Macao’s economy in the past several months, the research team adjusted its assumptions on visitor arrivals and forecasted that the number of visitor arrivals to Macao will remain relatively stable in 2023. Based on this, the research team revised the economic forecast released at the beginning of the year: Macao’s economy will grow by 47.0% in 2023; exports of services will surge by 101.2%; the inflation rate will be 1.2%; the overall unemployment rate will be 2.6% while the unemployment rate of residents will be 3.3%; and the current revenue of the Macao SAR government is expected to be MOP 76.5 billion.
After nearly three years of epidemic prevention and control, Macao changed its epidemic prevention policy in December 2022. The number of visitor arrivals has begun to rise in 2023. Among them, visitor arrivals from Hong Kong has recovered faster, reaching 2.24 million between January and April 2023, which was 90.2% of the same period in 2019. The number of visitor arrivals from mainland China reached 4.62 million between January and April 2023, 47.3% of the same period in 2019. However, the recovery of visitor arrivals from other regions was slower, with 0.35 million between January and April 2023, only 23.1% of the same period in 2019. On the back of tourism recovery, the non-gaming consumption and exports of non-gaming services reached MOP 23.5 billion in the first quarter of 2023, surpassing the level of the first quarter of 2019. However, the exports of gaming services was only MOP 28.3 billion in the first quarter of 2023, 44.9% of the first quarter of 2019. For domestic demand, both private consumption and investment have recovered well. The private consumption expenditure was MOP 24.5 billion in the first quarter of 2023, which was 88.4% of the first quarter of 2019. The gross fixed capital formation was MOP 11.7 billion, which was 82.2% of the first quarter of 2019. Consumer prices remained stable, with the consumer price inflation rate between January and April 2023 at just 0.8%. The labour market is gradually recovering. The overall unemployment rate in the first quarter of 2023 was 3.1% while the unemployment rate of residents was 3.9%, still higher than the rates of 1.7% and 2.3% in the first quarter of 2019, but down from the high rates of 4.0% and 5.2% in the third quarter of 2022. Employment earnings have recovered quickly. The median monthly employment earnings in the first quarter of 2023 was MOP 17,000, which has returned to the level of the first quarter of 2019.
After several months of observation and analysis of Macao’s economy, the research team adjusted its assumptions on visitor arrivals and revised the macroeconomic forecast. It is expected that the number of visitor arrivals to Macao will remain relatively stable in 2023: the number of visitor arrivals will be 6.45 million in the second quarter (60% of 2019), 6.94 million in the third quarter (65% of 2019), and 6.90 million in the fourth quarter (70% of 2019).
Based on the above assumptions, the forecasts of major economic variables are as follows:
• The GDP growth is expected to be 47.0%, with a range from a more pessimistic 32.5% to a more optimistic 61.6%.
• The baseline forecast for the growth of exports of services is 101.2%.
• The baseline forecast for the growth of private consumption expenditure is 4.0%.
• The baseline forecast for the growth of gross fixed capital formation is 1.0%.
• The baseline forecast for the growth of the inflation rate measured by the implicit deflator of GDP is 1.9%, while the consumer price index is expected to rise by 1.2%.
• The baseline forecast for the growth of median monthly employment earnings is 9.6%.
• The baseline forecast for the overall unemployment rate is 2.6%, while the unemployment rate of residents is 3.3%.
• The Macao SAR government’s current revenue is expected to be MOP 76.5 billion.
About the Macroeconometric Structural Model of Macao
The Macroeconometric Structural Model of Macao is a quarterly simultaneous-equations econometric model which covers seven blocks of Macao’s economy: consumption, investment, external sector, prices, government, labour market, and monetary sector. It includes 89 equations and 308 variables. Time series data start from the first quarter of 1998 and is updated once new data are available. Its results provide the community with a timely understanding of the state of Macao’s economy and support prudent decision-making. The model was founded by the late Prof Sir James Mirrlees, Nobel laureate in Economic Sciences and honorary doctor of the University of Macau (UM), as well as faculty members in the Department of Economics at UM. Members of the research team include Chan Chi Shing, lecturer (by courtesy) in the Centre for Macau Studies; Ho Wai Hong, associate professor in the Department of Economics; and Kwan Fung, assistant professor in the Department of Economics.
To read the news on UM’s official website, please visit the following link:
https://www.um.edu.mo/news-and-press-releases/press-release/detail/55928/