Computational Social Sciences Workshop: A Comparison of Classical and Counterfactual Approaches to Mediation Analysis

This talk examines the evolution and current state of mediation analysis in social and behavioral science research. Beginning with the classical approach popularized by Baron and Kenny (1986), I illustrate through simulation studies how unaddressed confounders, omitted mediators, and misspecified relationships between mediators can produce substantial bias in estimates of indirect effects. I then discuss causal mediation analysis that draws on a counterfactual framework based on insights from directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) and potential outcomes. I illustrate how controlled direct effects, natural direct effects, and natural indirect effects offer more refined estimands for understanding causal mechanisms, particularly when interaction effects are present. Throughout, I emphasize the importance of careful consideration of model specification for valid inference in mediation analysis.

For participants who have registered and attended the workshop, Smart Point / CS will be given as “Knowledge Integration”.

Please note the following guidelines of Smart Point scheme:

1. Students who attend the WHOLE activity and arrive ON TIME will be given one Smart Point;
2. Students who arrive late or leave early within 10 minutes will be given only half a Smart Point;
3. Students who arrive late or leave early over 10 minutes will NOT be given any Smart Point;
4. Students who leave the venue during the activity for over 15 minutes will NOT be given any Smart Point;
5. Students are required to check in/out of the activity with Student ID Card. For those who do not respect the activity or neglect the staff’s guidance, SAO reserves the right to cancel his/her Smart Point;
6. For those who do not respect the activity or ignore the staff’s guidance, Student Affairs Office (SAO) reserves the right to cancel his/her Smart Point. SAO also reserves the right to interpret and process the Smart Point scheme.

Enquiry：8822 8976 or fss.enquiry@um.edu.mo 

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Computational Social Sciences Workshop: Videos Engaging in Conspiracy Theories: Promoting or Refuting Foreign-Pseudohistory on the Video-Sharing Website (Bilibili)”

Speaker: Prof. Siyuan MA, Assistant Professor, Department of Communication, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Macau

Date: 19/2/2025 (Wed)

Time: 13:30 – 15:00

Venue: E21A-G035

Language: English

Register: https://isw.um.edu.mo/evmapp/register/css_siyuanma

Abstract:

The current paper is an exploratory study about foreign pseudohistory, which is a special kind of conspiracy theory that has important influence across developing countries, such as China. The current study analyzed 302 videos about foreign pseudohistory from a popular Chinese video-sharing website (Bilibili) and found 213 videos supporting foreign pseudohistory and 89 videos opposing foreign pseudohistory. Videos opposing foreign pseudohistory attract more viewers and comments than videos supporting foreign pseudohistory, but the latter videos attract fans with high stickiness. The inductive thematic analysis identified three major themes from these videos, including 1) how foreign civilizations and history were based on fabrication and plagiarism; 2) promoting foreign pseudohistory as a way to fight against Western-centrism; and 3) refuting and mocking foreign pseudohistory and enlightening the public about the real history. The further implications of this study, such as how to use the commenter-interaction data for echo chamber studies, will also be discussed.”

For participants who have registered and attended the workshop, Smart Point / CS will be given as “Knowledge Integration”.

Please note the following guidelines of Smart Point scheme:

1. Students who attend the WHOLE activity and arrive ON TIME will be given one Smart Point;
2. Students who arrive late or leave early within 10 minutes will be given only half a Smart Point;
3. Students who arrive late or leave early over 10 minutes will NOT be given any Smart Point;
4. Students who leave the venue during the activity for over 15 minutes will NOT be given any Smart Point;
5. Students are required to check in/out of the activity with Student ID Card. For those who do not respect the activity or neglect the staff’s guidance, SAO reserves the right to cancel his/her Smart Point;
6. For those who do not respect the activity or ignore the staff’s guidance, Student Affairs Office (SAO) reserves the right to cancel his/her Smart Point. SAO also reserves the right to interpret and process the Smart Point scheme.