News Express: UM releases revised macroeconomic forecast for Macao 2025
jasonleong2025-04-10T19:03:57+08:00
澳大發表2025年澳門宏觀經濟修訂預測
UM releases the revised macroeconomic forecast for Macao 2025
澳大發表2025年澳門宏觀經濟修訂預測
根據澳門特別行政區政府最新公布的數據,澳門大學澳門研究中心及經濟學系更新2025年澳門宏觀經濟預測。課題組表示,2025年澳門本地生產總值的基線增速向下修訂為6.8%,而其他主要經濟變量的基線預測為:服務出口增長6.8%、私人消費支出增長3.8%、通脹率0.7%、整體失業率1.7%、澳門居民失業率2.3%、澳門特區政府名義經常收入1,168億元。
疫情後來澳旅客逐步恢復正常,復甦步伐在2024年第一季仍然不錯,但第二季增長步伐開始放慢,第四季整體旅客人數為901萬人次,按年增長只有8.7%,當中中國內地旅客人數達到627萬人次,按年增長10.4%;香港旅客則為178萬人次,按年下跌3.2%;其他地區旅客人數為96萬人次,按年上升24.9%。踏入2025年,首二個月整體旅客人數為679萬人次,按年增長10.4%,當中中國內地旅客人數為504萬人次,按年增長11.9%;香港旅客則為116萬人次,按年上升0.2%;其他地區旅客人數為59萬人次,按年上升20.1%。
基於旅客人數增長放緩,2024年第四季的實質服務出口為760億元,按年增長2.1%,當中實質旅客博彩消費為444億元,按年增長4.3%;實質旅客非博彩消費為220億元,按年下降6.0%。2024整年的實質服務出口為2,992億元,按年增長9.2%,當中實質旅客博彩消費為1,771億元,按年增長21.8%;實質旅客非博彩消費為871億元,按年下跌6.1%。
內部需求方面,私人消費和投資需求穩定。私人消費方面,2024年第四季實質私人消費支出為300億元,按年增長2.9%。當中外地實質消費支出增長較為理想,按年上升4.7%;而消費品實質消費支出則較弱,按年下跌3.0%。2024整年實質私人消費支出為1,169億元,按年增長4.9%。投資方面,2024年第四季實質固定資本形成總額為149億元,按年下跌0.2%,而整年為565億元,按年增長4.6%。
整體而言,澳門本地生產總值在2024年第一季增長迅速,按年上升23.0%,其後增長步伐逐漸放慢,第二季增長7.1%、第三季增長3.8%、而第四季只有3.4%。總括來説,澳門本地生產總值在2024年增長8.8%。
物價維持平穩,2024年的消費物價通脹率僅為0.7%,當中佔比最重的食物及非酒精飲品,其通脹率為1.1%,佔比第二重的住屋及燃料,其通脹率為0.5%。踏入2025年,首二個月整體通脹率為0.2%,食物及非酒精飲品通脹率為0.8%,而住屋及燃料通脹率為0.3%。
勞動市場持續緊張,失業率維持在低水平,2024年第二季至第四季整體失業率均為1.7%,而澳門居民失業率均為2.3%;工作收入有提升,2024年第四季整體每月工作收入中位數為18,000元,超過2023年同期的17,600元,而澳門居民每月工作收入中位數為20,500元,亦超過2023年同期的20,000元。
美國總統特朗普及其政府班子在今年一月中上任後,推行多項關税和貿易保護措施,全球貿易出現波動,而美國亦造成潛在通脹壓力,利率難於下調,對全球經濟增長造成負面影響。美國政府的關稅措施面向全世界,當中很多貿易政策針對中國。中國內地本身亦因結構調整帶來增長放緩,當中如何應對得宜,跟其未來一段時間的經濟增長有著重要關係。中國內地作為澳門服務出口的最主要市場,亦會直接影響澳門的經濟增長。由於各種不穩定因素持續影響澳門的經濟增長,課題組預測2025年主要經濟變量如下:
- 澳門本地生產總值增長的基線預測為6.8%。
- 服務出口增長的基線預測為6.8%。
- 私人消費支出增長的基線預測為3.8%。
- 固定資產形成的基線預測為上升2.9%。
- 物價變動(澳門本地生產總值平減指數)的基線預測為上漲0.2%;消費物價指數升幅則為0.7%。
- 每月工作收入中位數的基線預測為上調1.5%。
- 失業率的基線預測是1.7%,而澳門居民失業率則是2.3%。
- 預計澳門特區政府的名義經常收入是1,168億元。
《澳門宏觀經濟模型》簡介
《澳門宏觀經濟模型》是一個大型季度聯立方程計量模型,目前包含澳門經濟中7個主要部分——消費、投資、對外貿易、價格、政府部門、就業市場以及金融系統,共有304個變數和87條方程式,所用數據由1998年第一季開始,模型估算會隨著數據發表而定時更新,提供及時和有用的澳門經濟分析,協助決策者對未來作出合理的規劃。此模型由澳大榮譽博士、諾貝爾經濟學獎得主前詹姆士‧莫里斯教授和經濟學系老師開發與管理。課題組召集人為關鋒,成員包括陳志誠、何偉雄和黃嘉基。項目現由澳大澳門研究中心管理。
欲瀏覽官網版可登入以下連結:
https://www.um.edu.mo/zh-hant/news-and-press-releases/press-release/detail/60835/
UM releases revised macroeconomic forecast for Macao 2025
Based on the latest data released by the Macao SAR Government, the Centre for Macau Studies (CMS) and the Department of Economics of the University of Macau (UM) have revised the macroeconomic forecast for Macao 2025. The research team has adjusted Macao’s baseline GDP growth in 2025 downwards to 6.8%; while the baseline forecasts for other major economic variables are: exports of services will grow by 6.8%; private consumption expenditure will increase by 3.8%; the CPI inflation rate will be 0.7%; the overall unemployment rate will be 1.7%; the unemployment rate of Macao residents will be 2.3%; and the Macao SAR Government’s current revenue will be MOP 116.8 billion.
Visitor arrivals gradually recovered to normal levels in the post-pandemic period. The pace of recovery was still good in the first quarter of 2024, but began to slow in the second quarter. The total number of visitor arrivals in the fourth quarter was 9.01 million, an increase of only 8.7% on the previous year. Among them, the number of visitor arrivals from mainland China reached 6.27 million, up 10.4% year-on-year; the number of visitor arrivals from Hong Kong was 1.78 million, down 3.2% year-on-year; and the number of visitor arrivals from other regions was 0.96 million, up 24.9% year-on-year. In 2025, the total number of visitor arrivals in the first two months was 6.79 million, up 10.4% year-on-year. Among them, the number of visitor arrivals from mainland China was 5.04 million, up 11.9% year-on-year; the number of visitor arrivals from Hong Kong was 1.16 million, up 0.2% year-on-year; and the number of visitor arrivals from other regions was 0.59 million, up 20.1% year-on-year.
Due to the slowdown in the growth of visitor arrivals, real exports of services in the fourth quarter of 2024 were MOP 76.0 billion, an increase of 2.1% year-on-year. Among them, real gaming expenditure of non-residents was MOP 44.4 billion, an increase of 4.3% year-on-year; while real non-gaming expenditure of non-residents was MOP 22.0 billion, a decrease of 6.0% year-on-year. For the whole year of 2024, real exports of services were MOP 299.2 billion, an increase of 9.2% year-on-year, of which real gaming expenditure of non-residents was MOP 177.1 billion, an increase of 21.8% year-on-year; while real non-gaming expenditure of non-residents was MOP 87.1 billion, a decrease of 6.1% year-on-year.
In terms of domestic demand, both private consumption and investment were stable. In terms of private consumption, real private consumption expenditure in the fourth quarter of 2024 amounted to MOP 30 billion, an increase of 2.9% year-on-year. Among them, the growth of real consumption expenditure abroad showed a promising increase of 4.7% year-on-year; while the real consumption expenditure on consumer goods was weaker, decreasing by 3.0% year-on-year. For the whole year of 2024, real private consumption expenditure was MOP 116.9 billion, up 4.9% year-on-year. In terms of investment, gross fixed capital formation in the fourth quarter of 2024 was MOP 14.9 billion, down 0.2% year-on-year; while gross fixed capital formation for the whole year of 2024 was MOP 56.5 billion, up 4.6% year-on-year.
Overall, Macao’s GDP grew rapidly in the first quarter of 2024, rising by 23.0% year-on-year. The pace of growth then gradually slowed in the following quarters, with growth of 7.1% in the second quarter, 3.8% in the third quarter, and only 3.4% in the fourth quarter. For the year as a whole, Macao’s GDP grew by 8.8%.
Prices remained stable, with a CPI inflation rate of only 0.7% in 2024. Food and non-alcoholic beverages, the largest component, had an inflation rate of 1.1%; while housing and fuel, the second largest component, had an inflation rate of 0.5%. In the first two months of 2025, the overall inflation rate was 0.2%, with food and non-alcoholic beverages at 0.8%, and housing and fuel at 0.3%.
The labour market remains tight, with the unemployment rate held at a low level. From the second to the fourth quarter of 2024, the overall unemployment rate was 1.7%, while the unemployment rate of Macao residents was 2.3%. Employment earnings saw an increase. The overall median monthly employment earnings reached MOP 18,000 in the fourth quarter of 2024, which was higher than MOP 17,600 in the same period in 2023. The median monthly employment earnings of Macao residents was MOP 20,500, which was also higher than MOP 20,000 in the same period in 2023.
Since taking office in mid-January this year, the Trump administration has implemented a number of tariffs and trade protection measures, leading to volatility in global trade. This has also created potential inflationary pressures in the US, making it difficult to lower interest rates, which has had a negative impact on global economic growth. The US government’s tariff measures target countries around the world, but many of its trade policies target China. In addition, mainland China is experiencing a slowdown in growth due to structural adjustments, and how it responds to this will have a significant bearing on its economic growth in the near future. Mainland China is the main market for Macao’s exports of services and its economy will have a direct impact on Macao’s economic growth. As various unstable factors continue to affect Macao’s economic growth, the research team has revised the baseline forecasts for major economic variables for 2025:
- Macao’s GDP will grow by 6.8%.
- Exports of services will grow by 6.8%.
- Private consumption expenditure will increase by 3.8%.
- Gross fixed capital formation will increase by 2.9%.
- The inflation rate (measured by the GDP deflator) will be 0.2%, and the CPI inflation rate will be 0.7%.
- Median monthly employment earnings will increase by 1.5%.
- The unemployment rate will be 1.7%, and the unemployment rate of Macao residents will be 2.3%.
- The Macao SAR Government’s current revenue will be MOP 116.8 billion.
About the Macroeconometric Structural Model of Macao
The Macroeconometric Structural Model of Macao is a quarterly simultaneous-equations econometric model which covers seven blocks of Macao’s economy: consumption, investment, external trade, prices, government, labour market, and monetary sector. It includes 87 equations and 304 variables. Time series data start from the first quarter of 1998 and is updated once new data are available. Its results provide the community with a timely understanding of the state of Macao’s economy and support prudent decision-making. The model was founded by the late Prof Sir James Mirrlees, winner of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences and honorary doctor of social sciences of the University of Macau (UM), and faculty members in the Department of Economics of UM. The research team is led by Kwan Fung, with members including Chan Chi Shing, Ho Wai Hong, and Gary Wong Ka Kei. The project is currently managed by the Centre for Macau Studies of UM.
To read the news on UM’s official website, please visit the following link:
https://www.um.edu.mo/news-and-press-releases/press-release/detail/60835/